The Iowa Caucuses are getting close. Finally some votes that actually count. The Republican Party has changed its rules (though for the caucuses it doesn’t matter as much) so that the early primaries are no longer winner take all. But the media coverage is still oriented to a winner only mentality (even if it is a 20% to 19% victory). Early primaries are part of the sorting out process. They slowly eliminate people who have not connected with voters and leave the final campaign to those who have. Only after it is down to 2 or 3 candidates will we be able to call someone a winner in this process. (It is easier to sort out losers — you get no support, you lose.)
It is early to make predictions, but Romney seems to have the best chance to last until June. Ron Paul will stay, but the question is whether he goes beyond his 15-20% base and captures the support of those who drop out. All the others look more like the flavor of the week with too many negatives and not enough organization to survive the campaign.